Monday, August 17, 2009

Looking back at the 2009 elections..

The celebrations that the UPA coalition made during this election , if they thought about 'democracy', would have been unnecessary. For most part, they were simply because they managed to procure most amount of seats. In fact, the mourning in the Left and Saffron quarters is well-placed.

This is how all of this adds up- against the phenomenal rise in seats that the UPA got, we only find a 2% increase in the total number of votes procured by the Congress in the entire country (TOI, front page, 16th or 17th of May). In fact, the voting trends are pretty simple to understand in many places. What has happened is that people have voted against the dominant party in that particular area. The BJP has lost out in Gujarat and MP, BSP in UP, Left in W. Bengal and Kerala, the Congress in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, RJD in Bihar, if percentage of votes recieved is considered. In these places, on the other hand, the votes have consistently gone to those in the opposition. Thus, a few combinations arose-

1.. The votes were divided between a major opposition and a maverick new-comer, still enabling the ruling party to win on seats. e.g. In Mumbai, while BJP-Shiv Sena were being pulled back by the MNS, the Congress managed to just win on the seats, inspite of a remarkable fall in %age votes received.

2.. The opposition managed to procure votes as well as seats. e.g. West Bengal and Kerala, where TMC and Congress won remarkably.

This is a clear signal that the electorate are not satisfied with those that had been at the helm of their respective spheres, and have chosen to pass the opportunity either to the major opposition, with some hesitation (so the Saffrons couldn't make it big) or have voted to the promising and rhetorical local mavericks (Praja Rajyam, MNS). Further on, it can be said that since the people disapproved all their local administrators, there must be that anti-incumbency, which mostly comes out of poor or shoddy performance. This is signal enough that our politicians are Non Performing Assets, and that their promises are not being taken for granted a priori.

Thus, the Political Parties have no reason to celebrate. While the others mourn, the UPA may be rejoicing the seats, but it is either ignoring the popular vote, or is blinded by it's seats so much that it fails to observe the discontent.

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